new construction
Homebuilding Is Cooling — the Pullback Is Mostly Single-Family, with Multifamily Still ~26% Below Its Pre-Pandemic Trend
Homebuilders continue to pullback
Orphe Divounguy
Divounguy is an economist who helps make sense of the forces shaping everyday life. He has advised business leaders and policymakers, translating data into clear insights about the decisions facing households, businesses, and communities.
The Consumer Is Treading Water: Retail Rose 5% Over the Year, but Two-Thirds Was Inflation
Key Takeaways * A soft month, not a stalling one. Retail sales fell 0.58% in July—the first monthly decline in months—but the three-month trend is still growing at a +2.4% annualized pace. * Most of the annual gain is just prices. Nominal sales are up 5.0%
Wholesale prices went nowhere in July — but the parts that feed PCE didn’t
Producer prices were flat on the month and cooled to 4.7% over the year. Energy did the work. Underneath the calm headline, the producer-price categories that flow into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge firmed — and our backtested nowcast says core PCE is still running above target.
inflation
July's Inflation Looked OK. Here's Why It Might Not Last
July inflation was genuinely benign — services cooled and annual shelter inflation kept easing. But underneath the friendly headline are three forward-looking risks: rent disinflation looks like it may be bottoming, July’s oil jump hasn’t yet reached consumer prices, and more tariff pass-through is still in the
AI
Can You Blame Gen Z for Being Skeptical About AI?
Key Takeaway Young workers have reason to be skeptical, but the outcome is far from predetermined. Labor’s share tells us how the gains are divided; productivity tells us how large those gains are. The key question is whether AI raises output per worker enough to support higher real wages
Government
You've Got Mail: The Federal Government Is Already Sending You the Bill
Key Takeaways * Government borrowing is not free. Persistent deficits eventually require some combination of higher future revenues, lower spending, faster growth or erosion of the real value of nominal debt through inflation. Along the way, heavier borrowing can also put upward pressure on interest rates. * Net interest was the largest
employment situation
July 2026 Jobs Report: Not Falling, Just Stuck — and There's not much The Fed Can Do About It
Key Takeaways * Payrolls “fell” 23,000, but that is statistically indistinguishable from zero — and the drop was likely a government-education seasonal quirk. Private payrolls actually rose 30,000. * The revisions are the story: May and June were cut by a combined 103,000, and the 12-month average is
Revelio vs. LinkedIn: Who Has the Better Read on Jobs?
The race to predict payrolls has no clear champion yet. Revelio is useful, not magical: it beats naive rules, looks about as good as LinkedIn, and belongs on a dashboard of real-time labor-market signals — not in place of the BLS report. Key Takeaways * Revelio clears the low bar.
Jobs, Employment, News
July 2026 Jobs Report Preview
Key takeaways * The job market is frozen — low-hire, low-fire. Employers have sharply cut hiring without materially increasing layoffs; the market has stabilized at a cool level rather than actively deteriorating. * June's 4.2% unemployment fell for the wrong reason. Participation dropped and about 500,000 fewer
AI
Did AI users beat AI sellers — and if so, why? A test of two explanations
At the start of summer 2026, the companies that use AI outperformed the companies that sell it. Here is a clean way to ask why — and to find out. * The “AI users beat AI sellers” story looks much less dramatic once you compare similar companies. At first glance, companies outside
Federal Reserve
June 2026 FOMC Meeting: No Cut, No Hike And What the Taylor Rule Says About the Fed's Hold
Key Takeaways * The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% in June, at Kevin Warsh's first meeting. It trimmed the statement and dropped the easing bias, and the dot plot moved from a cut bias to a slight hiking bias. * Unemployment is 4.3%, right on the Fed&
retail sales
May 2026: Retail Sales Topped Expectations. Where Is the Strength Coming From?
Key Takeaways * Retail sales have come in stronger than expected. The next state-level data, due June 25, will help locate where that strength actually sits. * If the pandemic era is any guide, the strength is probably not concentrated in states where households had the most exposure to rising asset