inflation
Key Takeaways * Hotter than expected. Consumer prices rose 0.4% and core prices 0.3% in October, both above expectations; core has now risen 0.3% for three straight months. * Energy is cooling, but other prices aren’t. Energy and gasoline inflation slowed sharply, while food, transportation services, and motor
BLS employment situation
Key Takeaways * Even the biggest gainers have experienced a slowdown. Texas added 154,300 jobs over the year, more than any other state, but its 1.08% growth was less than half its 2.34% yearly pace in the 2010s. * South Carolina is the exception. Its jobs grew 2.31%
BLS employment situation
Key Takeaways * Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, unemployment edged down to 4.1%, and upward revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September. Three-month average job growth reached 137,000, strengthening the case for labor-market resilience. * Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs, its
Key Takeaways * Volatility explains only part of the widening. The gap between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield grew about 27 basis points between September 17 and November 5. Our models tie roughly 7–8 basis points of that to higher volatility and yield-curve changes. * Investors pulled
BLS employment situation
What happened? * Employers added 165,000 jobs, and unemployment edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%. August and September gains were revised up by 84,000 combined, bringing three-month average job growth to 137,000. * Hourly earnings rose 0.4%, bringing annual growth to 3.1%, versus 3.
Key Takeaways * Construction spending is shrinking, led by factories and housing. Total spending fell 1.9% (±0.7%) in September and is 2.9% (±1.0%) below the same nine months of 2025. Factory and housing construction have each fallen by more than $30 billion this year, while data centers
housing
Key Takeaways * A small slice of the market. Fewer than 9,000 homeowners are expected to owe the surcharge, equivalent to less than a quarter of 1% of the city’s housing units, so citywide rents and typical home prices are likely to change little. * Effects show up at the
Tax Policy
Even if the county collects no additional revenue, homes with the lowest existing assessed values could face county-tax increases of 38%–45%, while those assessed highest could see reductions of about 5%. Key Takeaways * A revenue-neutral reassessment redistributes the tax burden. Under our reference scenario, the fifth of
Key Takeaways * The Fed paused, but financial markets continued to tighten. Short-term Treasury yields fell while longer-term yields rose, steepening the yield curve. Investors still expect additional rate hikes, but long-term borrowing costs can rise even without Fed action. * Higher long-term yields weren’t just about
Key Takeaways * Sales held steady in September but remain below last year’s level. Builders sold new homes at a 676,000 annual pace, down 0.6% from August and 5.3% from a year ago. Sales through September are 2.9% lower than in 2025. * More than half of
housing
Builders are pulling back at the front of the housing pipeline. September brought another decline in single-family permits, pushing the earliest signal of future construction to its lowest level since March 2023. Key Takeaways * Single-family permits hit a multi-year low. They fell 4.0% in September to
housing
Key Takeaways * New listings increased at the top. In the rolling 90-day windows ending in February–May 2026, new listings in higher-priced ZIP codes averaged 20.1% above the corresponding windows ending in 2022–2023. In lower-priced ZIP codes, they were 3.9% below. * The gap stands