…and it's still hard to get rehired Key Takeaways * Hiring stabilized. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, and June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. Year-to-date job gains are running roughly on par with last year. * Growth was concentrated. Nearly two-
Jobs, Employment, News
Key Takeaways * Frozen flows, not layoffs. The quits, hires, and layoff rates each sit about 17% below their 2018–19 averages. The weakness is showing up in hiring and mobility, not layoffs. * Normal openings, fewer moves. Openings and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio look near-normal. Far fewer workers move
Construction Spending
Key Takeaways * Flat in July, clearly down for the year. Total construction ran at a $2,157.6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate. The 0.5% monthly dip (±0.8%) can’t be distinguished from zero, so July itself was flat — but spending is 3.8% below the same month
Economy
Secular stagnation was never simply the idea that we had run out of things worth investing in. It was a theory about structural forces pushing the natural rate of interest lower. Those forces have not disappeared. They are being offset. Before we declare secular stagnation dead, it helps to remember
Economy
Private demand is strong, unemployment is low and consumers are still spending. And yet hiring has nearly stalled, real incomes have barely grown and an outsized share of GDP growth came from capital investment. Key Takeaways * Real GDP grew 1.5% annualized in the second quarter, while private domestic demand
inflation
Underlying inflation didn't budge — and core PCE landed almost exactly where our producer-price nowcast said it would. Key Takeaways * Income outran spending. Disposable income rose 0.5% in July (0.4% after inflation) while spending was essentially flat, so the saving rate ticked up to 3.0%
new home sales
Key Takeaways * Sales missed. New-home sales fell to a 607,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) — down 10.5% for the month (±14.0%) and 6.3% below a year ago (±19.6%). The 607,000 pace was below major consensus estimates clustered around 615,000–620,000. June
Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole this week. The Fed has held rates steady, but long-term borrowing costs are doing the tightening. Key Takeaways * Long rates have moved higher without another Fed hike. The repricing has also been remarkably orderly: 10- and 30-year Treasury volatility fell after the
housing
Mortgage rates have climbed back near a one-year high. Months of supply have risen, pointing to weaker price growth. Key Takeaways * Higher mortgage rates caused housing affordability to deteriorate. The payment on the typical U.S. home has risen about $146 a month when compared to February. Despite that,
Federal Reserve
Key Takeaways * The statement was cut in half. The first two Warsh-chaired statements average 113.5 words, 55% shorter than Powell’s final eight. * Forward guidance took the hit. All 24 of 24 recurring Powell-era reaction-function and guidance phrases disappeared from both Warsh statements. * The minutes shift
Builders are pulling back — and taking longer to break ground on homes they've already been approved to build. The headline numbers * Building permits rose to a 1,443,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) — up 5.0% for the month and 5.5% above a year ago. Single-
new construction
Homebuilders continue to pullback