Divounguy is an economist who helps make sense of the forces shaping everyday life. He has advised business leaders and policymakers, translating data into clear insights about the decisions facing households, businesses, and communities.
Jobs, Employment, News
Key Takeaways * Forecasters expect slower job growth. Published consensus estimates have been around 84,000–98,000 jobs, below August’s 162,000, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%. * Revelio and LinkedIn point to a softer report. Revelio estimates 56,900 jobs and LinkedIn about 40,000. Both
PCE
Key Takeaways * Inflation is still high, but it isn’t accelerating. Headline PCE inflation held at about 3.4% in August and core inflation held at about 3.0%. Prices are still rising, but they aren’t rising any faster than before. * Oil is still working its way through the
Key Takeaways * The bond market is the messenger. Economic reports move mortgage rates by changing what investors expect the Fed to do; on major data days, a 10-basis-point move in the 2-year Treasury comes with roughly a 4- to 7-basis-point move in mortgage rates that
new construction
New home sales rose in August but remained below last year’s pace. Buyers are increasingly concentrating at the bottom of the price distribution, and that shift is pulling the reported price of a new construction home lower. Key Takeaways * Sales are still soft. New home sales rose 6.4%
housing
The down payment is only part of the cash hurdle. Even after putting enough down to make the monthly payment affordable, a buyer must still cover closing costs and prepaids. Key Takeaways * The down payment is the first hurdle. A median-income household needs about $159,000 in cash to
housing
Key Takeaways * Affordability has narrowed to a handful of markets. A median-income household with $20,000 to close could buy the typical home in 181 metro areas in 2017; today it can in nine. * Seller credits barely help. Contributions up to the usable limit lift the count only to
Retail sales rebounded sharply in August, but the headline overstates the improvement. A meaningful part of the gain reversed July's decline, gasoline prices padded the top line, and the 6.0% year-over-year increase falls to just 2.6% after a rough adjustment for inflation. Still, the
housing
Mortgage rates are back near 7%, buyers are pulling back and inventory is rebuilding. But the top of the market has been moving in the other direction. Key Takeaways * The story of the summer is the resilience of the luxury segment. Over the three months ending in July, our model-
Federal Reserve
Key Takeaways * August’s inflation acceleration was concentrated in energy, reflecting an oil-supply shock rather than an overheating U.S. economy. The relevant question is whether higher energy costs are spreading into underlying inflation. * The literature does not say central banks should ignore supply shocks. It says the appropriate
inflation
Headline CPI and producer prices both firmed in August. Strip out energy and there is little evidence of a broad reacceleration — which is exactly the distinction that should shape the Fed's decision next week. Key Takeaways * Headline firmed, and it was energy. CPI rose 0.4% in August,
housing
Supply is fading. That matters. But a decline in construction does not mean every market has reached an inflection point. The better signal is whether new household demand is beginning to outrun the units already expected to arrive. Apartment deliveries are slowing, and rent growth has started to firm. That
housing
Nationally, the apartment supply boom is fading. After years of record multifamily construction, the wave of completed apartments hitting the market is beginning to recede. That should eventually take pressure off rents. But the next phase won’t look the same everywhere. The metro data tell a more complicated story.