Economy
Secular stagnation was never simply the idea that we had run out of things worth investing in. It was a theory about structural forces pushing the natural rate of interest lower. Those forces have not disappeared. They are being offset. Before we declare secular stagnation dead, it helps to remember
Economy
Private demand is strong, unemployment is low and consumers are still spending. And yet hiring has nearly stalled, real incomes have barely grown and an outsized share of GDP growth came from capital investment. Key Takeaways * Real GDP grew 1.5% annualized in the second quarter, while private domestic demand
AI
Key Takeaway Young workers have reason to be skeptical, but the outcome is far from predetermined. Labor’s share tells us how the gains are divided; productivity tells us how large those gains are. The key question is whether AI raises output per worker enough to support higher real wages
AI
Key Takeaways * A structural model estimated on 78 years of U.S. data separates two forces in the labor market: technology shocks, which permanently shift labor productivity, and non-technology shocks, which move employment and output together without any permanent effect on productivity. * Non-technology shocks — a broad category that
macroeconomics
Today's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that household budgets are on thin ice. The basic story is simple. Consumer budgets are being squeezed from three sides at once. Prices are still rising. Interest rates are still high. And income growth, after inflation, has been slipping.
macroeconomics
The 10-year Treasury is climbing into the April PCE print, and the headlines will frame it as an inflation scare or a growth story. The component decomposition shows it's neither.