PCE
Key Takeaways * Inflation is still high, but it isn’t accelerating. Headline PCE inflation held at about 3.4% in August and core inflation held at about 3.0%. Prices are still rising, but they aren’t rising any faster than before. * Oil is still working its way through the
Federal Reserve
Key Takeaways * August’s inflation acceleration was concentrated in energy, reflecting an oil-supply shock rather than an overheating U.S. economy. The relevant question is whether higher energy costs are spreading into underlying inflation. * The literature does not say central banks should ignore supply shocks. It says the appropriate
inflation
Headline CPI and producer prices both firmed in August. Strip out energy and there is little evidence of a broad reacceleration — which is exactly the distinction that should shape the Fed's decision next week. Key Takeaways * Headline firmed, and it was energy. CPI rose 0.4% in August,
inflation
Underlying inflation didn't budge — and core PCE landed almost exactly where our producer-price nowcast said it would. Key Takeaways * Income outran spending. Disposable income rose 0.5% in July (0.4% after inflation) while spending was essentially flat, so the saving rate ticked up to 3.0%
inflation
July inflation was genuinely benign — services cooled and annual shelter inflation kept easing. But underneath the friendly headline are three forward-looking risks: rent disinflation looks like it may be bottoming, July’s oil jump hasn’t yet reached consumer prices, and more tariff pass-through is still in the
macroeconomics
Today's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that household budgets are on thin ice. The basic story is simple. Consumer budgets are being squeezed from three sides at once. Prices are still rising. Interest rates are still high. And income growth, after inflation, has been slipping.