Federal Reserve - Orphe Divounguy

Federal Reserve

Markets Expect a Hike. The Fed Should Hold.

Key Takeaways * August’s inflation acceleration was concentrated in energy, reflecting an oil-supply shock rather than an overheating U.S. economy. The relevant question is whether higher energy costs are spreading into underlying inflation. * The literature does not say central banks should ignore supply shocks. It says the appropriate

Federal Reserve

The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed's Job

Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole this week. The Fed has held rates steady, but long-term borrowing costs are doing the tightening. Key Takeaways * Long rates have moved higher without another Fed hike. The repricing has also been remarkably orderly: 10- and 30-year Treasury volatility fell after the

Federal Reserve

The Fed Cut Its Statement in Half. What It Removed Matters More.

Key Takeaways * The statement was cut in half. The first two Warsh-chaired statements average 113.5 words, 55% shorter than Powell’s final eight. * Forward guidance took the hit. All 24 of 24 recurring Powell-era reaction-function and guidance phrases disappeared from both Warsh statements. * The minutes shift

Federal Reserve

June 2026 FOMC Meeting: No Cut, No Hike And What the Taylor Rule Says About the Fed's Hold

Key Takeaways * The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% in June, at Kevin Warsh's first meeting. It trimmed the statement and dropped the easing bias, and the dot plot moved from a cut bias to a slight hiking bias. * Unemployment is 4.3%, right on the Fed&

macroeconomics

Risk repriced: the term premium is on the rise

The 10-year Treasury is climbing into the April PCE print, and the headlines will frame it as an inflation scare or a growth story. The component decomposition shows it's neither.