Federal Reserve - Orphe Divounguy

Federal Reserve

The Fed Cut Its Statement in Half. What It Removed Matters More.

Key Takeaways * The statement was cut in half. The first two Warsh-chaired statements average 113.5 words, 55% shorter than Powell’s final eight. * Forward guidance took the hit. All 24 of 24 recurring Powell-era reaction-function and guidance phrases disappeared from both Warsh statements. * The minutes shift

Federal Reserve

June 2026 FOMC Meeting: No Cut, No Hike And What the Taylor Rule Says About the Fed's Hold

Key Takeaways * The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% in June, at Kevin Warsh's first meeting. It trimmed the statement and dropped the easing bias, and the dot plot moved from a cut bias to a slight hiking bias. * Unemployment is 4.3%, right on the Fed&

macroeconomics

Risk repriced: the term premium is on the rise

The 10-year Treasury is climbing into the April PCE print, and the headlines will frame it as an inflation scare or a growth story. The component decomposition shows it's neither.