Divounguy is an economist who helps make sense of the forces shaping everyday life. He has advised business leaders and policymakers, translating data into clear insights about the decisions facing households, businesses, and communities.
employment situation
The labor market is not collapsing. It is not strengthening. The most honest description is the one the data keeps repeating: stabilizing in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, not accelerating. For the next several months that is the operating assumption.
household finance
The personal saving rate has fallen to 2.6%. The Treasury Secretary calls it optimism. Forty years of data say it's something else.
new construction
New home sales fell in April, another sign that deteriorating household financial conditions are cooling housing demand. The rise in new home inventory sets up future price declines.
macroeconomics
Today's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that household budgets are on thin ice. The basic story is simple. Consumer budgets are being squeezed from three sides at once. Prices are still rising. Interest rates are still high. And income growth, after inflation, has been slipping.
macroeconomics
The 10-year Treasury is climbing into the April PCE print, and the headlines will frame it as an inflation scare or a growth story. The component decomposition shows it's neither.