Divounguy is an economist who helps make sense of the forces shaping everyday life. He has advised business leaders and policymakers, translating data into clear insights about the decisions facing households, businesses, and communities.
Key Takeaways * Sales held steady in September but remain below last year’s level. Builders sold new homes at a 676,000 annual pace, down 0.6% from August and 5.3% from a year ago. Sales through September are 2.9% lower than in 2025. * More than half of
housing
Builders are pulling back at the front of the housing pipeline. September brought another decline in single-family permits, pushing the earliest signal of future construction to its lowest level since March 2023. Key Takeaways * Single-family permits hit a multi-year low. They fell 4.0% in September to
housing
Key Takeaways * New listings increased at the top. In the rolling 90-day windows ending in February–May 2026, new listings in higher-priced ZIP codes averaged 20.1% above the corresponding windows ending in 2022–2023. In lower-priced ZIP codes, they were 3.9% below. * The gap stands
Federal Reserve
Most policy rules point to higher interest rates, even after allowing for inflation to decline. The case for further tightening is strong, but the Fed should move gradually and adjust the pace as the evidence changes. Key Takeaways * Current inflation points to higher rates. Standard Taylor and balanced-approach rules
Wholesale prices jumped in September, led by energy. My nowcasts put the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at 3.6% overall and 3.0% excluding food and energy. The gap is consistent with energy pushing headline inflation higher while core inflation stays near 3%. The PCE price index will be
Gasoline drove the headline, but core prices came in hotter than forecast. Bond yields rose after the report. Still, the pressure is mostly fuel, so the Fed can wait. Key Takeaways * Core ran hotter than forecast. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in September, above the 0.2%
Pending sales fall to their lowest level since April 2020 Key Takeaways * Buying activity weakened. Pending sales fell 8.6% from a year earlier and 4.0% from August, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. * Inventory increased as buyers pulled back. Active listings, the number of homes for sale
consumer expectations
Key Takeaways * Current conditions fell sharply. Michigan’s current-conditions index dropped 6.2 points to 44.7, a decline that large has occurred roughly once every fifteen months since 1978. * The outlook improved slightly. Expectations rose from 46.3 to 47.3, as consumers grew a bit more optimistic
Policy Evaluation
Single-family permits surged around the time Kansas introduced a 60-day approval deadline. But a closer look at when and where the increase occurred raises important questions about what caused it. Key Takeaways * Kansas outperformed its synthetic comparison. From July 2025 through August 2026, the state authorized approximately 19.
The Fed went from holding to hiking in seven weeks. Here's what that shift means for Treasury yields and mortgage rates, and why a pause may not bring relief. Key Takeaways * The Fed’s thinking changed in seven weeks. In July, it held rates on a 9–3
housing
Buyers of high-end homes will face the stiffest competition in the Bay Area and the Midwest, where luxury homes rarely come up for sale. Key Takeaways * The Bay Area and the Midwest lead. San Jose, Indianapolis and San Francisco top the list of the 10 hottest luxury markets for
BLS employment situation
Key Takeaways * Employers added 29,000 jobs in September. That looks soft in isolation, but the broader pattern hasn’t changed much. Not-seasonally-adjusted payroll employment has increased by roughly 2.5 million from January through September this year, compared with about 2.3 million over the same period