household finance
Optimism or pressure? What the data says about why households are saving less.
The personal saving rate has fallen to 2.6%. The Treasury Secretary calls it optimism. Forty years of data say it's something else.
Latest
new construction
The New-Home Market Isn’t Collapsing. But Prices Are Losing Support.
New home sales fell in April, another sign that deteriorating household financial conditions are cooling housing demand. The rise in new home inventory sets up future price declines.
macroeconomics
The consumer is still spending. But the budget is getting tighter.
Today's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that household budgets are on thin ice. The basic story is simple. Consumer budgets are being squeezed from three sides at once. Prices are still rising. Interest rates are still high. And income growth, after inflation, has been slipping.
macroeconomics
Risk repriced: the term premium is on the rise
The 10-year Treasury is climbing into the April PCE print, and the headlines will frame it as an inflation scare or a growth story. The component decomposition shows it's neither.