inflation
July inflation was genuinely benign — services cooled and annual shelter inflation kept easing. But underneath the friendly headline are three forward-looking risks: rent disinflation looks like it may be bottoming, July’s oil jump hasn’t yet reached consumer prices, and more tariff pass-through is still in the
employment situation
Key Takeaways * Payrolls “fell” 23,000, but that is statistically indistinguishable from zero — and the drop was likely a government-education seasonal quirk. Private payrolls actually rose 30,000. * The revisions are the story: May and June were cut by a combined 103,000, and the 12-month average is
employment situation
The labor market is not collapsing. It is not strengthening. The most honest description is the one the data keeps repeating: stabilizing in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, not accelerating. For the next several months that is the operating assumption.