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Lower home sales, higher inventory set up price decline

new construction

The New-Home Market Isn’t Collapsing. But Prices Are Losing Support.

New home sales fell in April, another sign that deteriorating household financial conditions are cooling housing demand. The rise in new home inventory sets up future price declines.

By Orphe Divounguy 28 May 2026
Americans savings are getting drained.

macroeconomics

The consumer is still spending. But the budget is getting tighter.

Today's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that household budgets are on thin ice. The basic story is simple. Consumer budgets are being squeezed from three sides at once. Prices are still rising. Interest rates are still high. And income growth, after inflation, has been slipping.

By Orphe Divounguy 28 May 2026
Risk repriced: the term premium is on the rise

macroeconomics

Risk repriced: the term premium is on the rise

The 10-year Treasury is climbing into the April PCE print, and the headlines will frame it as an inflation scare or a growth story. The component decomposition shows it's neither.

By Orphe Divounguy 27 May 2026
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Orphe Divounguy

Clear economics for big decisions. Plain-English analysis of housing, jobs, interest rates, and the consumer.

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